Pathology of Demographic Changes using Damage Assessment Models (FMEA-IPA) (Case Study: West Azerbaijan Province)

Population in terms of quantity and quality is one of the important components in economic growth and development, and it is necessary to study and analyze it in order to use the existing capacities to achieve goals. For this purpose, the present study aims to express the intensity, the probability of damage, while examining the damage that occurs during the population decline after 2006 and the the ensuing population decline. This damage determined by the FMEA model. The IPA model has also been used to understand the reasons for the decline in population and finding strategies for demographic change. Since the research samples are the experts, the studty used a snowball method and selected 20 people. The results of the research show that the damage caused by demographic changes in West Azerbaijan province are 29 hazards in five dimensions. Fifteen of them are identified at a significant level that requires serious actions. The important actions are as follows: Future predication demographic changes, a positive attitude to the demographic changes, marriage age, economic conditions and livelihoods, and facilities for marriage. Policies such as urbanization growth, temporary measures without follow-ups, and the slogans like “a better life with fewer children” after the revolution had negative effects, although positive effects are improvement of health.