Cross Impact Analysis of Key Factors of Yemen's political-security transformations and futures Scenarios

Considering the importance of Geopolitics Yemen and bob al-mandeb strategic strait in global trade and energy security and the Saudi Arabia, under the pretext of returning the Yemeni runaway president, created a coalition of reactionary governments in the region and with the support of Western countries launched a comprehensive military invasion against the revolutionary government and the oppressed people of Yemen and besieged it. In this way, Yemen's political transformations became a security issue on the regional level that is accompanied by complexity and uncertainty.

The study employs developmental and applied method with respect to research's objective and utilizes case-based approach and was based on both quantitative and qualitative research techniques due to the mixed nature of research. Required data, according to G.B.N scenario-planning approach, were gathered in three ways: exploratory studies, library note-taking and interview with 20 experts in Yemen's subject and then the views of 37 officials involved in Yemen's political-security transformations with a full-scale approach using questionnaire. Data analysis was done using statistical analysis. Cross Impact Analysis by mick mac software and mean scores of experts extracted by Friedman test with SPSS software.

Based on the results of the research, According to experts, out of 34 factors, 19 factors are the most important key factors the key on Yemen political-security transformations, two critical uncertainties determined and four scenarios for Yemen’s political-security transformations as well as its indicators have been compiled.