Evaluating the Efficiency of Future Coin Contracts in Iran

The future of coin market as one of the tools of the financial market established in 2008 aims to unify gold transactions and prevent imaginary transactions, prevalence of counterfeit coins, and risk of price fluctuations. Also, given the importance of gold trading in the country, future contracts can help transparency of information in this market, be effective in detecting prices, and attract some wandering capital of the economy. Yet, they can be achieved only if the market is efficient. Evaluating market efficiency helps to identify the existing constraints, correct future directions, and improve market efficiency. Thus, many studies have been done about the financial market in Iran. Despite the launch of Iran's future market, not much has been done in this regard. Therefore, the aim of this research was to investigate market efficiency by using the model of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Error Correction Model (ECM). For the long-term efficiency of the market, which was studied by using the OLS method, the required limitation was 5% and all the models had efficiency. Also, for its short-term efficiency, which was examined by using the ECM, the restrictions for all the models, with the exception of the model of 25-28 days before maturity, were not rejected at the level of 5%, indicating the models were effective.