Cognitive analysis of human resource risk management strategies based on managers' mental models and risk assessment matrix to improve business performance: A case study of knowledge-based companies

Recently, human resource risk management has attracted the attention of risk researchers. Risk is the uncertainty in the distribution of the consequences of an event, the probability of its occurrence, and its mental value. The environment has no independent role, and uncertainty is a characteristic of the manager who wants to make decisions. All the behaviors and decisions of individuals also depend on their cognitive frameworks and mental models. So, human resource risk management is a concept that manifests itself under the influence of managers’ mental model. In the present study, with a cognitive view of human resource risk management in knowledge-based companies, we try to gain a better understanding of a manager’s frame of mind. The cognitive aspect and mental framework of managers have widely been studied by management researchers in recent years. The present study aims at the cognitive analysis of human resource risk management strategies based on managers' mental models and risk assessment matrix to improve business performance.

The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method. The data are collected through library and field studies. The statistical population of the study included 77 managers of knowledge-based companies in East Azerbaijan Province where human resource risk management was relevant. It was studied by the census sampling method. Questionnaires and scenarios were used for data collection. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed for its content. Its reliability was also calculated in terms of Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.887). For the statistical analysis, descriptive statistics were used to describe the research variables. Then, the inferential statistics section was answered using chi-square, Tukey and one-way ANOVA tests.

In the present study, we cognitively analyzed human resource risk management strategies based on managers' mental models and a risk assessment matrix. The cognitive approach has developed significantly in recent years and, through the knowledge of the brain, mind and its functions, has been able to obtain valuable information about the origins of human behavior.The findings showed the type of managers' interpretation of real events, their attitude of risk, their choice of a particular type of human resource risk management strategy, and their interpretation of real events. There was a significant relationship between these parameters and human resource risk management. In addition, a significant difference was found between the choice of a particular type of risk management strategy in managers' estimation of risk outcomes and the probability of risk occurrence. The results were consistent with the risk assessment matrix. The risk is high, and, in the maintenance strategy, the average managers' assessment of the risk outcomes and the probability of risk occurring are low. In the risk reduction strategy, the average of managers 'assessment of low risk outcomes and the probability of occurrence of high risk and, in the risk transfer strategy, the average of managers' assessment of high risk outcomes and the probability of occurrence of risk are low.

In this study, it was found that most managers in knowledge-based companies are risk-takers, consider human resource risk management attractive, and, in the face of risks, choose risk reduction and maintenance strategies. There is also a significant relationship between managers' mental models and strategy selection. The more managers value the company's opportunities and strengths and find human resource risk management attractive, the more risk-averse they are, and the more they value weaknesses and threats. They consider human resource risk management as a necessity (determinism), and risk aversion is obvious in their management. In fact, instead of waiting for opportunities, risk-taking managers hunt for opportunities. In addition, it was found that the more risk-taking managers are, the more they tend to choose risk reduction and maintenance strategies, and the more risk-averse they are. The more prominent managers are more inclined to choose reduction and avoidance strategies. In fact, the differences in managers' interpretations and perceptions of risk make them act differently in their decisions and behave differently. In other words, the mental models of managers in knowledge-based companies in East Azerbaijan Province is a determining factor in interpreting the environmental events and identifying the opportunities and threats that affect the decision-making process. Therefore, it is better for these managers to increase their awareness of human resource risks, the source of risks, their control methods as well as the status and position of their company and competitors.