Identification of variables affecting farmer’s resilience to dust based on expert opinion

The importance of paying attention to sustainable development and biosafety in areas that effected by an environmental disaster such as dust storms has increased the need for new methods to find coping strategies. For this purpose, cross-structural analysis is an effective tool for studying system behavior. Based on the results of structural analysis and future study approaches, stability strategies can be proposed in the affected area by high-risk dust. The method of the research is according to the applied and future study approach. The sample population of this research was composed of 22 experts and managers in the field of agriculture and dust. Based on collecting data through expert interview and brainstorming method, the effective drivers were identified. According to the opinion of experts, the final drivers were extracted as a 26 × 26 matrix. Then, the cross-impact matrix was scored by experts. To determine the key drivers affecting the resilience of farming communities affected by dust in Ahvaz County, the future research approach was performed using MICMAC software in three groups of economic, social, and natural-physical components and 26 indicators. Research variables were divided into three categories »key, Independent and Regulative« based on the degree of relationship between influence and dependence. Key drivers include »Change of Quality and Quantity of Agricultural Products, Income Risk, Unemployment and Poverty Rise, Access to Financial Credits, Alternative livelihood and Immigration«. The results showed that the system of this study is unstable and in order to make management decisions and increase sustainability, it is necessary to develop strategies based on key drivers affecting farmer’s resilience.