The Effect of Climatic elements on the Systematic Risk Severity of Iranian Date Yield using Dynamic Spatial Panel Approach

Agriculture has intrinsically depended on nature, which is associated with risk and lack of certainty. Decreased precipitation, extreme cold, freezing, drought, and the prevalence of plant diseases and pests are the only small part of the risk that farmers are facing. Climatic and weather changes in different regions are often interconnected, and this coincidence may affect a huge part of the country. In other words, such abrupt changes usually result in a systematic risk of gardening products yield. Adverse weather events in one year have different effects in different areas, hitting some regions strongly while involving others less severely. In this research, the systematic risk of date yield and factors affecting its severity were investigated using spatial dynamic panel patterns. The statistical data of 8 major date producers and meteorological variables over the Provinces of Bushehr, Khuzestan, South Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, Kerman, Hormozgan, and Yazd during the years 2008 to 2019 were extracted from the Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Agriculture. The results of the spatial Durbin model showed that the spatial spillover of the Annual precipitation in the date-producing provinces has a positive (2.90) and significant effect whereas the spatial spillover of Untimely precipitation variables has a negative and significant effect on the average yield of the Iranian date. Besides, the effect of the spatial spillover of the Average maximum summer temperature was determined at 1.83, which shows the given variable has a negative and significant effect on the date yield likewise. Comparing direct and indirect effects in the dynamic spatial panel model showed that in the short-term, Annual precipitation variables have a negative and significant relationship on the average date yield. Meanwhile, the long-term results proved the direct but negative effect of Untimely annual cold and Annual precipitation variables on the average date yield.