Evaluation of Tourism Development by Systems Dynamics Model (Case Study: Shahdad City in the Northeast of Kerman)

Urban tourism is a complex phenomenon that increases in interaction with different environments. In recent years, due to this issue's importance, tourism has greatly impacted the economic, cultural, and political relations of different societies. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the application of the system dynamics method in the planning and development of the tourism industry in Shahdad.

In this research, using dynamic modeling in the form of the systems dynamics analysis method, the tourism development of Shahdad city has been evaluated. After reviewing the background of the research and identifying the factors affecting the development of tourism in Shahdad, the most important of these factors and a model of these factors and practical relationships between them were drawn in the Vensim software environment and the time horizon of the next 10 years was simulated.

In the model simulation, different scenarios were created based on increasing the cost of Shahdad tourism development, surplus budget ($ 5,000) and decreasing the cost of Shahdad tourism development, lack of budget ($ 1), and showed that this surplus budget could affect other variables. With the increase in the cost of tourism development in Shahdad, we saw an increase in attractions and tourism capacities in the model, and on the other hand, the lack of budget caused us to faceless attractions and the desire of local people, and this indicates that all variables in the model They were related.

The simulation results of the designed model showed that in order to achieve the desired goals, fit and coordination between different subsystems of the Shahdad tourism system (tourist economy income, tourism attractiveness, environmental protection, local people willingness) is necessary.