Formulation and prioritization of sustainable strategies based on believable scenarios of increasing the physical resilience of Tehran against earthquakes (Case study: Region 10)

This study intends to rely on key factors affecting physical resilience and hiring the scenario planning approach investigate the credible scenarios of increasing the physical resilience of Tehran Region 10 against earthquakes to formulate and prioritize sustainable strategies in order to increase the physical resilience of the study area on the horizon of the year 1404. The methodology is descriptive-analytical and seeks to answer, what are the sustainable strategies that can ensure the physical resilience of the study area against the horizon of 1404? For this purpose, in order to provide a theoretical framework, first the subject is expressed using the documentary method, literature and theoretical foundations, and then, relying on environmental dynamics, experimental data are extracted. The statistical population of the study includes 20 urban experts and the sampling method is purposeful. As the first step, by determining the possible status of key factors and weighting them by experts, the necessary data were entered into ScenarioWizard and strong, weak and reliable scenarios were extracted from this software. At the next step, by analyzing the internal and external elements related to the physical resilience of the study sample, research strategies were presented in the form of SWOT and based on plausible scenarios. Finally, by the Strategic Planning Quantitative Matrix (QSPM) technique, sustainable strategies were enumerated and prioritized to increase the physical resilience. The results of this study demonstrate that if District 10 of Tehran tends to increase physical resilience in case of earthquake damage, reliance on sustainable defense strategies is inevitable