Investigation of Nazarabad County Ecological Security Based on the Trend of Land Use Changes Using Landscape Metrics

Development in its general sense, industrial, technological and spatial progress, especially in developing countries, has led to adverse effects on the environment not only on a regional scale but also at different regional, national and sometimes global levels which has similarly affected the ecological security of the regions. In recent decades, more attention has been paid to the issue of environmental safety in the world, and various methods have been developed to evaluate it, but to date, most research on ecological safety has been done based on the pressure- Status -response model and fewer studies have been conducted based on approach landscape ecology models have dealt with this category. There is also little research focusing on dynamic changes in ecological security, in particular simulating and predicting the future development of environmental security. The purpose of this study is to monitor and predict the environmental security situation in the period 1991 to 2035 by combining the support vector machine algorithm, landform ecology model, Markov chain combination model, and automated cells for the Nazarabad county area of ​​the functions Alborz province. For this purpose, using the classification of Landsat satellite images in two 15-year time periods from 1991 to 2021, the trend of land use changes in the region in five land use classes; Construction lands, cultivated lands, wetlands, vegetation and barren lands were studied and CA-Markov model was used to prepare land use maps for 2035. MPS, CA, NP, PLAND, AWMSI, and PD metrics were calculated to quantify the landscape appearance patterns at the class level and LPI, CONTAG, and SHDI metrics were calculated at the landscape level. Then, the ecological safety index was modeled for the landscape metrics of the study area. The results indicate a decrease in integration and an increase in the number of spots in the cultivated land class and the development and expansion of man-made lands in these lands. On the other hand, we have witnessed the phenomenon of integration in the barren lands of the region. Therefore, the ecological security of the region during the study period affected by the above events was evaluated more intensively during the years 1991 to 2006  and more gently in the years 2006 to the forecast of 2035. It was suggested that more attention be paid to environmental considerations and principles of protection in regional development programs.For this purpose, using the Landsat satellite image classification in two fifteen-year periods between 1991, 2006, and 2021, the trend of land use change in the study area in five land use classes; Construction lands, cultivated lands, wetlands, vegetation cover, and bare lands were examined and to quantify the patterns of landscape appearance at the class level, MPS, CA, NP, PLAND, AWMSI, PD metrics and at the landscape level LPI, CONTAG and SHDI metrics were calculated. The CA-Markov chain model was used to prepare land use maps for 2035, and then the ecological security index was modeled for land use metrics in the study area. The results indicate a decrease in integration and an increase in the number of spots in the cultivated land class and the development and expansion of man-made lands in these lands. On the other hand, we have witnessed the phenomenon of integration in the barren lands of the region. Therefore, the ecological security of the region, during the period under review, affected by the above events, was assessed with more intensity during the years 1991 to 2006 and with a milder slope in the years 2006 to the forecast of 2035. Therefore, it seems necessary to pay more attention to environmental considerations and the principles of protection and protection in the development programs of the region.