Future Scenarios Mapping of export promotion for the novel drugs on the horizon of 2035

One of the Compiled strategic priorities in the lead documents of the Iran's health discipline is to be a pioneer in the production and export of vaccines and novel drugs. The purpose of this study is to describe images of the future of the export promotion of vaccines and novel drugs on the horizon of 2035.  This research is applied and method used in this study was a scenario-based planning. In this study, the method of data collection was qualitative by using interview, questionnaire and expert panel. MICMAC software and Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis. The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first of section included: identifying and classifying key factors, driving forces and related uncertainties. Seven driving forces including: “sanction”, “the trust and credibility of novel drugs industry”, “compilation of national documentary novel drugs”, improving the molecule purity”, international networking”, “type of export viewpoint” and diversification in export market” were identified and the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified and described possible and consistent scenarios based on the key drivers and uncertainties.Based on the research findings, four consistent scenarios including: (1) elixir (2) pain killer (3) panacea and (4) hemlock, were explained and compared. Familiarity with the narratives of each these scenarios and their comparison and desirability will be enable health policy makers to realize the process of creating future   and achieve the visual visions in the lead of health discipline.