Analysis of Key Drivers of the Impact of Rural Management Performance on the Physical Development of Suburban Settlements with a Future Study Approach(Case Study: Aliabad Katoul County)

Rural management is always worth studying from different aspects. Performance of rural management is one of these aspects that plays an effective role in the process of developing and strengthening. Investigation and analysis of the role of management in development, physical dimension and reduction of physical vulnerability in rural areas is in line with sustainable development. The physical dimension, as part of the process of sustainable regional development, provides the basis for the stabilization, maintenance and absorption of the population, and consequently, their activities, because the focus of physical-spatial development and related programs, plans and projects based on a systemic considers both the current situation and the future.Aliabad Katoul County is an area where a large part of the population lives in villages, in recent years these areas have witnessed many physical changes. Therefore, it calls for a more scientific and accurate knowledge of rural management and the level of physical development of rural settlements. The purpose of current research is to study the role of rural management in the physical development of rural settlements around the city of Aliabad Katoul in the horizon of 2031. In this regard, for research, the question can be raised that what are the most important key drivers of physical development, resulting from the activities of rural managers in the study area?

This research is an applied and descriptive-analytical study based on the purpose and the nature. Data were collected through documents (library resources, scientific journals) and a survey (questionnaire). The questionnaire was prepared in the form of MICMAC questionnaire and distributed and completed among rural experts in the region in order to capture the impact of rural management on the physical changes of rural settlements in Aliabad katoul County in the horizon of 2031. The statistical population of the study is the villages with grades 5 and 6 rural municipalities around the city of Aliabad katoul. 35 questionnaires were considered for experts in the field of rural areas. Micmac software was used for data analysis and structural analysis of the impact of each of the effective indicators on the formation of physical changes in rural settlements.

Because of the high score of direct and indirect influencing factors, the study categorized five factors in the three main groups of key drivers affecting the future of physical development of rural settlements based on the activities of rural managers in Aliabade Katoul. These factors are land acquisition and using the empty lands within the physical texture to develop and expand the texture of the village (direct impact (4+) indirect impact (1609+)), efforts to establish production units and livestock and garden units (direct impact (4+) indirect impact (1608)), promote the use of local materials in residential units and traditional architectural models (direct impact(3+) indirect impact (1224+)), efforts to improve the condition of public routes in the village (direct impact (3+), indirect impact (+832)), increase and improve educational and cultural facilities and spaces (direct impact (2+) Indirect impact (869+)).

The present paper investigated the future of the impact of rural management on the physical development of rural settlements in the horizon of 2031. The findings showed that the highest performance of local managers was in the field of spatial-physical dimension. Villages are losing their identity culturally and physically due to expansion of urban lifestyles and every day we see changes in rural settlements from their native and traditional essence. Given that, villagers as rural managers can play a significant role in the physical development of villages, and consider the authentic need and the culture of the people in different regions. The physical changes of the rural texture should take economic and social needs into account. This will lead to the expansion of production and livestock workshops and promote the use of local materials in residential units and traditional architectural patterns, and provide access to educational and cultural spaces and can lead to sustainable rural physical development.