Analysis of urban resilience indicators against flood risk with a futures research approach (Case study: Khorramabad)

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the resilience indices of Khorramabad against flood risk with a futures research approach.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. The statistical population of the research includes experts familiar with urban issues in the city of Khorramabad. The sample size was obtained by snowball sampling method of 44 people and MICMAC software was used to analyze the data of this research.

Research findings show that the variables of independent population, at-risk infrastructure, access / evacuation potential, population stability and construction boom have the highest overall impact ratings. Also, the variables of urban land cover change ratio, infrastructure, Access to transportation, communication capacity and equality of educational facilities have the highest overall impact ratings. Regarding the six dimensions of research, the rankings of influence belong to the physical, institutional, social, economic, environmental and social capital dimensions, respectively. Generally among 37 investigated variables in this research, 9 variables such as independent population, building strength, building age, building ownership, medical care capacity, internet infrastructure, good governance, access / evacuation potential and also endangered infrastructure were selected as effective and key variables in urban or city resistance.

Every planning for Khorramabad city resistance must has main role for mentioned factors. Mentioned variables have high dominance power in Khorramabad city resistance increasing and their correlation is low and also they are first priority in Khorramabad city resistance.