Investigation of the Effect of Air Temperature on the Health of Branching Corals in Chabahar Bay and Prediction of Their Health Under Climatic Scenarios

Global warming has intensified the corals bleaching in some areas. In this study, the effect of climatic parameters on the health of branching corals in Chabahar Bay was investigated. For this purpose, climatic data of ECMWF center and Chabahar meteorological station were used. Coral health data were obtained from the Coral watch site and also by diving operations by the author. Statistical analyzes were performed using Pearson correlation, multiple regression, Mann-Kendall trend and analysis of variance. To estimate the temperature and health level of the coral ecosystem in the coming decades, the combined data of GCM models of CORDEX database were used under two scenarios of radiation induction RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The results showed that despite the significant increase in air temperature and a significant decrease in coral health index in the past, the health status of branching corals at the end of 2019 is classified as "good". According to forecasts, although there are differences in the level of branching coral health index between the observation period and the coming decades, these differences are only statistically significant for the distant future and only under the pessimistic scenario of RCP8.5. In other words, under the conditions of climate change from the perspective of both scenarios, the health index of branching corals for the coming decades in the "good" classification with an average annual color grade of about 4 out of 6 Score for the RCP8.5 scenario and 4.3 for the scenario RCP4.5 will be maintained.