Impact of climatic parameters on the extent of mangrove forests of southern Iran

Mangrove forests play a valuable role in maintaining the coastal ecosystem. Global warming alongside human activities has caused reduced extent and health of these ecosystems in recent years. This study aimed to examine the variability of the extent of mangrove forests and the sea surface area in response to changes in climatic parameters in the south of Iran. To achieve this, the climatic data recorded at Bandar Abbas Synoptic Weather Station and Landsat series of satellite images were used. To detect the trends of meteorological parameters during 1987-2017, the modified Man-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator were employed. We investigated the regression relationship between climatic parameters as well as the sea surface area and the mangrove forest extent. The results showed that mangrove forest extent was about 73.08 km2 in the first year of study (1987), which increased to 88.73 km2 (21%) in 2017. The minimum temperature (Z = 2.77, β = 0.0186), maximum temperature (Z = 2.066, β = 0.0362), and the extent of the mangrove forests (Z = 2.58, β = 0.0405) displayed significantly growing trends. In contrast, the mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and the sea surface area had no significant trends during the study period. The minimum temperature presented the highest correlation coefficient with the mangrove forest extent (61%). It is expected, therefore, along with global warming and increasing minimum temperature, the extent of mangrove forests would have a growing trend in the south of Iran in the future. The results of this study can be used by natural resources and forest managers to determine the best place for afforestation in order to perform better protection of these forests.