Scenario Writing for the Future of Driverless Cars

Researchers have stated that the main cause of car accidents is human error. Autonomous vehicle or driverless car can probably eliminate human error. They can also bring other benefits such as resource efficiency and reduced traffic. Many companies, such as Google and Tesla, have moved into the development of autonomous vehicle. Therefore, it is necessary to provide technological, social and economic infrastructure from now on. The purpose of this study was to write a scenario of different situations of autonomous vehicle. The research method was that first the factors affecting this technology were extracted from the literature review and these factors were used as the basis for interviews with experts. Experts removed, approved, or added these factors. Content analysis of expert interviews was performed with MAXQDA software and then key effective factors were identified by MICMAC software through Cross-Impact Balances. In the next step, different scenarios were considered for these key factors with SCENARIO WIZARD software. Findings of the study were that four scenarios were proposed by SCENARIO WIZARD software, one of which was a favorable scenario, an unfavorable scenario and two static scenarios. The favorable scenario of the analysis and suggestions on how to achieve it were also presented. Knowing this favorable scenario from now on, we can provide the necessary preparation for the favorable future of autonomous vehicle so that the best of this new technology can be implemented in the country.