Comparing The Basic Reproduction Number (R0) Estimation Methods of COVID-19, Using Simulation Data Based on Available Data from Iran, USA, UK, India, and Brazil

Accurate determination of the basic reproduction number (R0) is a very important strategy in the epidemiology of contagious diseases, including COVID-19. This study compares different methods of estimating the R0 of susceptible population, to identify the most accurate method for estimating the R0.

The value of R0 was estimated using attack rate (AR), exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood (ML), time dependent (TD), and sequential Bayesian (SB) methods, for Iran, USA, UK, India, and Brazil from June to October 2021. In order to accurately compare these methods, a simulation study was designed using forty scenarios. Study design: Cross-sectional study

The lowest MSE was observed for TD and ML methods, with 15 and 12 cases, respectively. Therefore, considering the estimated values of R0 based on the TD method, it was found that R0 values in the UK (1.33 (1.14, 1.52)) and the USA (1.25 (1.12, 1.38)) significantly have been more than in other countries.

The important result of this study is that TD and ML methods lead to a more accurate estimate of R0 of population than other methods. Therefore, in order to design accurate and practical vaccination strategies, as well as control COVID-19 and similar diseases using these two methods is suggested to more accurately estimate R0.