Predictive and Analysis of Probable Heavy Rainfall in Khuzestan Province Using HadCM3 and SDSM

Due to climate changes, precipitation forecasting and precipitation estimation, one of the most important climatic parameters in the field of water resources management, is of particular importance. Therefore, in this research, the application of SDSM model in precipitation estimation was investigated. In this research, the data related to Ahvaz, Abadan and Dezful synoptic stations were used. The forecast time frame for the future period (climate scenarios) is also 30 years between 2031 and 2060. The outputs of the HadCM3 model, under the A2 and B2 scenarios and the CanECM2 model, under the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios, were micro scaled by applying the SDSM statistical exponential micro scale model in the prediction of the precipitation parameter, also using statistical and graphical methods. Micro scaled and basic data were analyzed and then calibrated. Base period modeling was done with higher accuracy in CanESM2 data compared to HadCM3 data. The results indicated that in the coming years, the total rainfall will increase in all three stations and the maximum amount of rainfall will decrease in all three stations. According to the modeling results, it seems that the climate of Khuzestan will have a wetted winter climate and drier summers in the near future.