Analyzing Spatial Spillover Effects of Insecurity on Tourist Attraction among Iran Provinces

One of the most influential factors in the tourism boom is the security of tourism destinations as well as the security of the adjacent regions of the destinations. Thus in this study, the impact of security on tourism attraction among the Iranian provinces is studied due to the regional spillover effect. Security index derived from the combination of several variables such as data on murder, suspicious deaths, quarrels, conflicts, sedition, hooliganism, and suicides divided by provinces and based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Spatial diagnosis tests are done and positive spatial dependency is confirmed among the regions and then the model is estimated in the form of dynamic spatial panel data by spatial Durbin for the period 2011-2017. The results show that an insecurity increase causes a decrease in the number of tourists in a tourist destination and the adjacent regions (spatial spillover effect). While the insecurity index spatial effect is more than its direct effect which means that insecurity variations in a province decrease the number of tourists in adjacent regions more than the number of tourists of that province. Also due to the results, not only insecurity but also the number of specialists, the number of cultural centers, and the information and communication technology index have the most effect on attracting tourists.index spatial effect is more than its direct effect which means that insecurity variations in a province decrease the number of the tourists of adjacent regions more than the number of the tourists of that province.