Regional balance and equivalence assessment using ecosystem services value and spatial monitoring of gravity centers

During the last few decades, Land management decisions and consequently the land use\cover change in the Zagros biomes affected the ecosystem services value and their spatial distribution. The purpose of this study was to determine how land decisions affect spatial indicators of balance and equivalency of ecosystem services values during a period of 30 years (1990-2020) in Kohgiluyeh-Boboyrahmad province. Initially, LULC was extracted from Landsat and Sentinel satellite images using an object-oriented processing method. In addition, the benefits transfer method was applied to estimate ecosystem services' economic value, and the sensitivity indicator analysis process was applied to measure their uncertainty. Ultimately, by developing a gravity index and performing spatial statistical analyses in a 1km fishnet, we monitored the spatial balance and equivalence of ecosystem service value. The results show that the change in the ecosystem services value was mainly due to the intensity of unbridled man-made land (9.8%) and agriculture (6.3%) during the study period. The findings also show that the total value of ecosystem services has decreased by 3% over 30-years (152.6 Thousand Billion Tomans in 1990 to 148.5 Thousand Billion Tomans in 2020). As the sensitivity index is low, the modeling is reliable, accurate, and flexible with low uncertainty. Spatial analysis of hot spots shows a 2% decrease in areas with high potential for ecosystem services. On the other hand, the changes in the gravity centers the ecosystem service values in the period under study are substantial, as the center of gravity has moved 400 meters to the southwest over 30 years. Because of severe human intervention, the total ecosystem services value had been nonequalvalnce, resulting in 1.4 Thousand Billion Tomans in losses. Estimates in the research show restoration of oak forests in the southern and eastern regions of the province and increasing the value of services by 87 billion tomans can provide the necessary ground for the return of balance to the land.