Designing a Model to Enhance Income by the Supply of Tourism Services (System Dynamics Approach)

The tourism industry in the world is one of the important sources of revenue and due to the high exchange rate of inbound tourism, focusing on this area can increase the share of tourism in the gross national product of countries. Therefore, in this research, the Iranian tourism industry has been studied and an attempt has been made to cover various areas of tourism services such as health, pilgrimage, cultural and recreational tourism. Due to the existence of various dimensions and effects and different stakeholders involved in the development of tourism, leading to the complexity and dynamism of behaviors in this area, in order to analyze this industry, the methodology of systems dynamics has been used. A model was developed in Vensim software to discuss 4 scenarios; visa facilitation for tourists, mobilization of all media and advertising facilities in the country, both private and public, extensive production of Covid-19 vaccine or its import, and removal of tourism restrictions risen as a result of the pandemic, and an increase in capacity of various tourism services, as well as the results of the policy implementation. The results show that the implementation of supportive policies in the short term alone is not effective and the pandemic should end first and at the same time advertising should be done in order to facilitate the entry of tourists to the country and then with a delay of 5 years to develop the capacity of tourism infrastructure with priority given to the development of accommodation services.