Measuring the degree of speculation in the housing market of urban areas of selected provinces of Iran: a spatial econometric approach

This study seeks to measure the degree of housing speculation in selected provinces of Iran with a spatial econometric approach, and for that porpuse, the real value time series data on land prices, housing prices, GDP and rents in 20 provinces during the period (1385-1396) is used. After examining the effects of these variables on the housing prices of the selected provinces, a fixed-effect spatial autoregression model was estimated and the degree of housing speculation in the provinces was calculated based on the gap between the average actual and the estimated prices (intrinsic value). The results indicate that housing rent and land prices have a positive effect while GDP has a negative effect on housing prices. The housing prices gap was significant for all provinces which based on that, then, the degree of speculation of the provinces was calculated. The spatial and contiguity effects of provinces on their neighbors were estimated as well, based on provinces' neighborhoods and their degree of speculation.