Long-term Survival of Multiple Myeloma Based on CBC Test at Diagnosis Using Defective Marshall-Olkin Cure Model

As a malignant proliferative disorder, multiple myeloma (MM) is classified as a cancer of the immune system. Generally, a complete blood count (CBC) is the first test for a patient with symptoms of MM. Through CBC, physicians can monitor abnormalities in the blood. To normalize malignancies in their blood, patients must first go through conventional chemotherapy. Afterward, if eligible, subjects would receive high-dose therapy and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Primarily, patients would be subjected to autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (auto-HSCT).

This retrospective cohort study consisted of 56 MM patients who were diagnosed between January 2010 and August 2016 and were followed up until February 2022. Thesurvival rate of MM patients was assessed based on CBC test at the time of diagnosis. The clinical conditions, i.e., Thrombocytopenia, Leukopenia, and Anemia, were extracted from the CBC test and were used as the desired prognostic factors in companion with age at diagnosis. Overall survival based on the mentioned factors was analyzed using the defective Marshall-Olkin gompertz cure model, which was programmed in R software version 4.0.3.

The mean age at diagnosis was 52.76 (SD = 7.1). The probability of long-term survival for patients in this study was 46%, with five-year overall survival equaling 73.2%. Patients with thrombocytopenia had about 86% lower odds of long-term survival compared with patients with normal Platelet levels (Plt).

The present study indicates that deficiency in Plt count is a significant factor leading to poor survival of MM patients.