Spatial-Temporal Pattern Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in Iran(1357-1397)

Although terrorism is considered a political phenomenon in nature and having political goals is one of its inherent characteristics; But terrorist groups usually pursue a variety of political goals, and the places and locations of attacks by these terrorist groups depending on the type and nature of the political objective pursued is different. What is certain is that the distribution and concentration of terrorist attacks on a global, national, and local scale is not accidental, and Several features are influential in this distribution pattern. In Iran, both spatially and temporally, there have been periods of frequency and concentration of terrorist attacks that can be called the wave of terrorist attacks. In some periods, terrorist attacks and the activities of terrorist groups were concentrated in parts of the country and in other periods it was relocated to other parts of Iran has been transferred. In periods also, terrorist attacks have intensified in several regions of the country over a period of time; therefore, this research investigates the answers to the following questions: “What spatial pattern has the terrorist attacks in Iran followed”?  and “what is the difference between how to distribute the attacks of different terrorist groups and their methods”?

The method used in this research is quantitative and using data from reputable global databases on terrorist attacks in Iran. also, Spatial distribution maps based on location-based data have been used to better understand the issues.

The first long wave of terrorist attacks in Iran began immediately after the victory of the Islamic Revolution and will continue until the end of 1982. During this 4 year period, the biggest and most intense terrorist attacks take place. During this period, the widespread and simultaneous activity of anti-government terrorist groups and ethnic separatist terrorist groups will intensify terrorist attacks in Iran. The 267 terrorist attacks recorded in these four years are almost equal to half of the total terrorist attacks of the last 40 years. Spatially, this wave of terrorist attacks has been concentrated in Tehran and major cities and boundary regions in the northwest and southwest of Iran. Assessing the distribution of terrorist attacks during this period shows that attacks by anti-government terrorist groups follow a hierarchical distribution, whereas the attacks of separatist terrorist groups have followed the pattern of proximity or contagious diffusion.The second long wave is related to terrorist attacks between 1990 and 1994. This wave of terrorist attacks in Iran coincides with the end of the Iran-Iraq war. In this wave of terrorist attacks, mainly anti-government groups are active who sent troops from abroad to carry out terrorist attacks inside Iran. During this period, the terrorist attacks of the separatist groups in the western and southwestern provinces of Iran will be significantly reduced compared to the previous wave. However, terrorist attacks in Sistan and Baluchestan province begin with considerable intensity and are largely affected by the Proximity contagion of terrorist and extremist groups in Indian subcontinent.  The pattern of terrorist attacks in this period is mainly hierarchical due to the activity of anti-government terrorist groups. During this period, terrorists mainly used the bombing method in their attacks. The focus of terrorist attacks is spatially in Tehran and the centers of major provinces. The third long wave of terrorist attacks began in 2005 and will continue until 2014. This period coincides with the intense activity of separatist terrorist groups with a religious approach in the South-East regions of Iran. So that in this wave, Sistan and Baluchestan province has the highest frequency of terrorist attacks in Iran. Also, the activities of terrorist groups in Khuzestan, Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces increase significantly compared to the previous period. A study of the spatial distribution of terrorist attacks shows that these attacks are affected by the proximity diffusion inside and outside the State. In this wave, the instrument and methods used by terrorists change in accordance with and under the influence of international religious terrorism in the South-East of the State, and terrorists use unconventional methods such as suicide attacks. In addition to these three major waves of terrorist attacks in Iran, two shorter and less intense waves of other terrorist attacks have also occurred in Iran. The first short wave of terrorist attacks takes place from 1998 to 2000. This short wave of terrorist attacks is in fact a continuation of the long wave from 1990 to 1994, which follows the same pattern in terms of the type of terrorist groups and the geography of the attacks. The second short wave of terrorist attacks took place from 2015 to 2018. This short wave of terrorist attacks is also located along the long wave of 2005 to 2013. With the difference that in this period, International terrorist groups, specifically ISIS, attacks in Iran. In this short wave, the main attacks took place in the boundary regions of Iran in of Sistan and Baluchestan, West Azerbaijan, Khuzestan and Kurdistan provinces.Almost all terrorist attacks in Iran between 1978 and 2018 were carried out by two groups of terrorist groups. First, there are anti-government terrorist groups that carried out terrorist acts with the aim of overthrowing the ruling political system and changing the government. The places and spaces that these groups targeted were mainly located in large and important cities of Iran. Anti-government groups planned and carried out their attacks first in Tehran and then in the provincial capitals and metropolises. Therefore, the distribution of terrorist attacks in these terrorist groups has been done hierarchically from a geographically. These groups have been very influential in the first and second wave of terrorist attacks, but gradually and with the strengthening of the political and security system of state, the intensity of this group and their ability to attack has been greatly reduced.The second type of terrorist group includes groups with separatist goals. These groups are active in ethnic and religious areas around of state that are not complete homogeneity with the central government. Separatist groups have been very active in the first and third waves of terrorist attacks in Iran. A noteworthy point about these groups is the spatial and geographical as well as organizational connection of some of them with terrorist organizations active in neighboring countries. Also, these groups have spatial and organizational pursuits outside the country. Therefore, the pattern of diffusion the attacks of these terrorist groups from the geographical point of view is proximity and contagion