Future Research in Assessing the Vulnerability of the Road Network of Region 2 of Tehran Municipality and its Efficiency Against Earthquakes

The use of futures research methods can be one of the best techniques of optimal management in the future in which a critical moment may occur. In order to reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes, the necessary preparation is obtained with the help of futurology. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the vulnerability of the road network in District 2 of Tehran Municipality and its efficiency against earthquakes. The research method was descriptive-analytical. Criteria considered in the study were 8 land use criteria, number of floors (building height), building quality, building density, degree of enclosure, passage width, population density, distance from the fault. Information layers were prepared by documentary-field method. In the IHWP method, they were ranked, scored and processed in the GIS environment by the Delphi method. In the ANP method, it was evaluated by experts in super decision. The results show that the vulnerability class length in the IHWP model has the highest length in the very high vulnerability class with a length of 63.121 km and the very low vulnerability class with a length of 3.961 km. In the ANP method, the very low vulnerability class with a length of 135.35 km has the highest length and the medium vulnerability class with a length of 11.329 has the lowest length. In this method, the vulnerability class is very high, with a length of 40.94 km, in the second priority in terms of vulnerability length. In IHWP model, vulnerable areas in the center and a small part of the south in Azadi, North Rudaki, Niayesh streets and in ANP model, vulnerable areas in the south and a small part of the north of region 2 in Jannah highway, Habibollah street , Yadegar Imam Highway, Shadmehr, Niayesh Gharbi, Behboodi, Parcham, Nosrat Gharbi streets. The results of field visits to selected areas in both models showed higher accuracy of IHWP method than AHP.