Estimation of Water Footprint in Current Cropping Patterns and its Reduction Capacity in Optimal Patterns under Multiple Goals Conditions (Case Study; Varamin Region)

With the intensification of the water crisis in the world, it has become necessary to pay attention to the concept of virtual water and water footprint in agricultural planning and policy-making, especially in countries located in arid and semi-arid regions. The agricultural sector in Iran, as the largest water consumer, will require serious attention to the concepts of virtual water and water footprint. The aim of this study was to reduce the water footprint of optimal patterns under the simultaneous goals of profit and risk compared to current cropping patterns. Also, consequences for not implementing the optimal cropping model in terms of benefits and water footprints were investigated. For this purpose, data of production cost, cultivated area and crops production of Varamin region has been used for the crop year 2017-2018. Also, the research method in this study was to estimate water footprint indices and goal programming models. The results of this study showed that in the equilibrium patterns of profit and risk, the net profit of farmers will increase by 10.8% and at the same time, the water footprint will decrease by an average of 5.5%. In fact, the footprint of blue, green and gray water in the current model of cultivation is equivalent to 52.45, 2.79 and 17.56 million cubic meters, respectively, and in the optimal model of profit and risk balance, it is equivalent to 51.60, 2.24 and 96, respectively. It was estimated to be 14 million cubic meters. Finally, the total water footprint in the two models was estimated to be 72.81 and 68.81 million cubic meters, respectively. Considering only 2% water consumption for the total need of industry and mining and saving 5.5% in water footprint in the country, by implementing the optimal model of profit and risk balance in the agricultural sector, in addition to earn more profit by farmers, more water can be saved than the industry's need. This amount of savings can be done by the government at no cost, and in fact, more benefits and less risk will encourage farmers to follow this pattern.