The Significance of Futurology in Resilience Scenarios of Urban Spatial Structure against Earthquakes (Case Study: Shiraz City)

Urban resilience is a term used to measure a city's ability to recover from a hazard. Urban resilience can be studied from different dimensions. In the meantime, paying attention to the spatial structure of the city is very important. Because in the definition of the city, in addition to the body of the city, the relations of the people of the society must also be considered. Therefore, in times of crisis caused by natural hazards, the issue of resilience of the city structure is very important. This article, while expressing urban resilience, examines this issue in the structure of Shiraz city and evaluates the resilience of this metropolis against earthquake risk. This research’s goal, in the first step is identify key drivers effective on sustainable development in Shiraz and the influence these propellers on each other and in the second step is achieving favorable scenarios for sustainable urban development in Shiraz in the future.  This research, in terms of purpose, is a practical and in terms of nature and method is analytical and exploratory that is done based on new methods of future science research, which determines key indicators through the Delphi method and identify key drivers using the MicMac Software based on cross-impact analysis method and Optimal scenarios are presented using the Scenario Wizard Software.  The results indicate that in the case of the selected scenario (active scenario, scenario appropriate to the structure of resilience), drivers such as the Quality of roads and access, urban infrastructure, relief access, urban shelters for temporary housing, building density, urban open space and urban fabric should be considered in line with the structural resilience approach of spatial development of Shiraz metropolis.