Scenario Planning for the Future of Religious Tourism in Mashhad City in 1404 Horizon

The tourism industry is one of the largest and most profitable economic sectors in the world, tourism creates high added value, has become one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors in the world in the division of the most important sources of income in the world, religious tourism As one of the most important branches of the tourism industry, it is one of the most lucrative sectors of this industry in the world. Using the science of futures research, the present study aims to provide a clear view of the future of religious tourism in Mashhad to planners and tourists. In this study, by studying the literature and interviewing tourism industry experts, the effective factors were identified and then using the interaction analysis approach, the data were entered into Mic Mac software and four key factors affecting the future of religious tourism in Mashhad were identified. Security and tranquility, a positive image of the destination, travel expenses and tourist satisfaction were selected from nineteen influential factors. In the next step, to develop the scenario, four key effective factors were determined by the experts by entering the uncertainty scenarios in the questionnaire into the script wizard software and the most compatible scenarios were identified. After identifying the scenarios and consulting with experts, security, tranquility and travel costs were selected to develop the scenarios and according to the conditions, the future of religious tourism in Mashhad was presented in the form of four scenarios based on the key factors in each scenario