Investigating the Impact of Distribution Growth Income and Stock Returns in Forecasting GDP

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dispersion of revenue growth and stock returns on GDP forecast. Financial indicators from the Tehran Stock Exchange and the economic index of the research were used based on the rates announced on the website of the Central Bank. The statistical sample of the study included 119 companies that during the period of 2009 to 2018, informations was selected quarterly from companies listed on the stock exchange and hypotheses were tested using the VAR model and Granger causality in Eviews10 software. Based on the results of the analysis of hypotheses, it can be said that the dispersion of income growth with a break in the second period has a significant effect on GDP and also there is no two-way causal relationship between the dispersion of income growth and GDP. Therefore, the variable of income growth dispersion can not predict GDP. Also, dispersion in stock rate of return with a break in different periods does not have a significant effect on GDP and also there is no two-way causal relationship between dispersion in stock rate of return and GDP. Therefore, the variable of dispersion in the stock rate is not able to predict GDP.