Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Aging and Internal Migration in the Counties of Country

Considering the migration age pattern and the aging trend in Iran, this study aims to investigate the migration effect on the aging spatial distribution of the country during 2006-2016.

This study is a secondary and descriptive-analytical analysis. The source used is the data of the general population and housing census and the analysis unit is the counties of the country. Pearson correlation and analysis of variance in SPSS software, version 22 were used to analyze the data and geographic information system (GIS) was used to display spatial distribution maps.

The study of the migration process in the cities showed that the immigrant-first cities have gone towards aging by losing their young population, while the young cities are mostly receiver-migrant. As a result, the proportion of elder cities is increasing every year. The correlation between the net migration rate and the aging index indicates the inverse relationship (-0.363, -0.303, and -0.216) of these two variables during all periods; as the net migration rate increases, the aging index decreases. The results of the analysis of variance also showed the net migration rate at the county level is significantly different (P = 0.000). The spatial distribution also showed that immigrant-first cities in the western and northwestern regions have a higher rate of aging compared to other regions.

According to the research question, it should be said that the spatial pattern of aging in the population of Iran according to the studied indicators is scattered in clusters and the population of Iran is transitioning from middle age to old age.