Analysis of the key drivers influencing the control of the land and urban housing market with the use of foresight (Case study: Parand New City, Tehran Metropolis)

Due to the extensive spatial changes caused by the increase in population and the flood of migration to the cities and especially the metropolises, the demand for land and consequently the constructions related to housing intensified. In between, stock market, rent and speculation; The land and housing market has faced many problems and personal interests have been preferred over public interests. In this regard, the aim of this research is to analyze and identify the key factors influencing the control of the land and housing market in the new city of Parand (Tehran metropolis) with a forward-looking approach. The type of research is applied in terms of purpose and its nature is descriptive-analytical. Sampling was purposeful and 30 specialists and city managers were selected to rate the indicators. MAXQDA software was used to extract indicators (in the form of qualitative analysis) and MICMAC software was used for quantitative data analysis. The results of the research showed that economic and managerial-institutional dimensions were the most influential and environmental-social and economic dimensions were the most influential control criteria in the land and urban housing market of Parand. Also, among the 40 investigated factors, 15 factors were selected as key factors affecting the control of the land and housing market in New Parand city. In this regard, the five factors of tax on profit from sale, tax on the right of quality, tax on frequent transfers of land and housing, tax on empty and unused houses, and the laws of expropriation of land and its storage, respectively, with a numerical value of "351, 347" , 326, 304 and 296" directly; and five factors of tax on profits from sales, change of lifestyle, tax on frequent transfers of land and housing, income status and rules for expropriation of land and its storage, respectively, with numerical values of "349, 341, 325, 310 and 297" They will indirectly influence the control of the land and housing market in the new city of Parand.