Drawing Economic and Social Scenarios Facing the Eastern Borders of the Country in Relation to the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran
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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
In order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years, the economic and social challenging factors of the country's eastern borders will be identified in the horizon of 2025 and then probable and related scenarios will be drawn. In terms of its objectives, this study is of an applied research type and in terms of data collection it is considered descriptive-analytical. According to the future research approach, the statistical population of the research is in the form of a panel of experts. The number of experts based on the panel method is 15 individuals. In order to analyze the findings of the research, cross-matrix future research and scenario writing methods were employed using Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. The findings indicate that 7 economic and social scenarios with compatibility and high score are facing the future of the eastern borders of the country in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, among which 1 is very strong and likely and 6 are weak scenarios. Based on the results of the research, 5 variables of development, poverty, unemployment, construction of border terminals, and drug trafficking were obtained in the state of continuation of the existing trend, and this confirms that the status of the continuation of the current trend for the 5 variables mentioned in the time horizon of 2025 is probable. However, the human trafficking variable was obtained with the increase in human trafficking and it confirms that the increase in human trafficking from the eastern borders is likely in the time horizon of 2025.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Border Science and Technology, Volume:12 Issue: 44, 2023
Pages:
79 to 100
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