Predicting the Impact of Using Euro 5 Gasoline on Air Pollution Levels in the City of Shiraz

If we be aware of the trend of air pollution and the factors affecting pollution, we can reduce these factors and think of important measures for them and work to protect the environment, including the air, which in turn reduces the long run social and economic costs of pollution. The Euro 5 emissions’s standard has been implemented in EU member states since 2009. This law was supposed to be implemented in Iran from 2012, but it faced many obstacles. In this study, due to growing trend of pollution in major cities of the Iran, the emission of carbon monoxide (an indicator of pollution) has been simulated using the system dynamics approach in the period 2021-2042 for the city of Shiraz (as a case study). By continuing the current situation, the population of Shiraz increases through two natural population growth and migration. Appropriate air pollution control strategies have been proposed using public transportation, technical inspection, traffic management, and the offer of alternative fuels. Based on the simulation results in different scenarios, replacing Euro 4 gasoline with Euro 5, carbon monoxide emissions in Shiraz will be significantly reduced in the long run. Otherwise, the continuation of the current trend in 1420, carbon monoxide will become a serious challenge for the city of Shiraz.