Leisure foresight of the elderly based on the physical activity approach (layered causal analysis method)

Factors such as improving living conditions, increasing life expectancy and lifespan in the elderly have led to an increase in the elderly in various societies, including Iran and old age has more leisure than youth due to age conditions and reduced work activity ratio, Therefore, the aim of this study was to foresight the leisure time of the elderly based on the physical activity approach.

Using the model of causal layered analysis, in four levels of litany analysis, social causes, discourse and worldview and myth, this research investigates the approach of the layered causal method to the problem. Therefore, by studying the sources in the research literature, interviewing sports and futures research experts and using causal layered analysis, describes the problem four levels.

causal layered analysis of the elderly's leisure was defined by the physical activity and exercise approach with 27 indicators and showed that the existence of problems at the four levels is necessary in order to take a more comprehensive look at the nature of problems and issues and to create intellectual order in a structured confrontation with problems.

The results showed that in order to plan and accurate policies to meet the needs of the elderly especially in the field of sports and physical activities in the form of leisure, attention to the layer of discourse and myths and metaphors causes the set of constructive actions in these layers to solve some issues at higher levels lead to a bedrock for active Elderly.