Forecasting and explaining the scenarios facing the pension funds of the Ministry of Cooperation, Labor, and Social Welfare

The welfare system and the future of retirement is one of the issues that has become a complicated issue due to its relationship with the growing population of retirees and the elderly and the influence of social, economic, political-legal, technological, and environmental developments. In this paper, the drivers and uncertainties affecting the future of pension funds and drawing the probable, possible, and desirable futures of these funds have been analyzed.

In terms of methodology, in the current study, integrated foresight was used to select methods. The interview was conducted with a group of 30 experts using the "judgmental" and "snowball" targeted sampling methods.

In the first step, 70 drivers affecting the future of pension funds were identified and after initial refinement, the list of drivers was localized by removing similar drivers and having little connection with the future environment of Iran, the final list of 47 drivers (Technology 11, Social 8, environmental 4, economic 15, political-institutional 9 drivers) were selected to analyze cross effects and measure importance and uncertainty.

In the present study, six scenarios of reconstruction after the economic war, interaction, and construction, edge of the precipice, heroic softening, near victory, and compromise and transition are imaginable.