Designing a Resilient Supply Chain Model via Scenario-Based Approach: A study of Kaleh dairy supply chain in a Ten-Years Horizon

Disruption in the supply chain is an event that disrupts the normal flow of goods and services in the production process, and this issue can have negative consequences on the performance of the operation, financial and market areas of businesses. Managing these risks, that is, making the supply chain resilient, is one of the current and future challenges of organizations. The food industry is one of the industries that both in terms of the extent of the regional and global market, has the aspect of export and foreign exchange and employment creation, and in terms of the scope of food consumption in the country, it is considered important and valuable as necessary and relatively necessary goods for ensuring food security. This study is aimed at identifying the most important factors affecting the resilience of the supply chain of Kale company in a 10-year horizon (as one of the active companies in the country's food industry) and to discover the future scenarios, the   company is facing in the field of supply chain resilience. The research in terms of goal is exploratory, in terms of audience is applied and in terms of time is cross- sectional. The data collected through semi- structured interviews and questionnaire. In this research we used the new futuristic knowledge of   exploratory structural   analysis methods. The data was collected through a semi-structured interviews and questionnaire.   We also used structural analysis to analyze data with the help of Mic Mac   software, and for scenario analysis and its compilation, Scenario Vizard software was used. The research results show, the 6 key strategic factors that are influential on the resilience of the supply chain of Kale Dairy Company are: economic, environmental, technological, social, political and internal organizational. The results of Scenario Wizard also showed 211 scenarios with weak probability of occurrence, 7 plausible scenarios and 2 scenarios with strong probability to occur. Finally, several strategies are also provided.