Development and validation of a prognostic model of the severe form of covid-19 in the community covered by Mashhad University of Medical Sciences

Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)

 The covid-19 disease is one of the types of viral diseases that are asymptomatic in about 81% of cases or have mild to moderate symptoms, and cause severe symptoms in about 14%. Identifying the cases that have a higher chance of contracting the severe form of the disease at the first level of providing services in order to provide appropriate and timely care is of great importance, so this study aims to investigate the role of background diseases and demographic characteristics of people in the occurrence of severe form of covid using Logistic regression prediction model has been done


 In a historical cohort study, all patients with definite covid (positive PCR test) who have electronic health records in comprehensive health service centers of Mashhad were included in the study. Variables related to demographic characteristics and history of background diseases as predictor variables and severity of covid disease as a two-status variable as a dependent variable were analyzed by logistic regression. The final model was validated by evaluating the diagnosis index and calibration index


 Out of 30,364 patients with covid who were covered by Mashhad University of Medical Sciences from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of January 1400, 1,664 were hospitalized and 269 died 64 people were hospitalized in the intensive care unit. Among the demographic variables, age above 60 (OR: 2.86(, BMI (OR: 1.35) ), and among the background disease history of people, chronic kidney disease (OR:8.23), respiratory disease (OR: 5.51.), cardiovascular disease (OR: 5.29), diabetes (OR: 2.03) and hypertension (OR: 0.91) remained in the severe form of covid prediction model. The final model was suitable for predicting the severe form of the disease (hospitalization or death) with the area under the curve (AUC), 0.75.


 The results of this study can effectively help health workers in identifying people who have a higher chance of suffering from a severe form of the disease.

Medical Journal of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Volume:66 Issue: 1, 2023
159 to 169  
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!