Dynamic Impacts of Fossil Fuels Consumption on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran

Article Type:
Research/Original Article (بدون رتبه معتبر)

The issue of climate change has become a significant global concern over the past few decades. Greenhouse gas emissions, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, are a primary contributor to this phenomenon. Of the various types of fossil fuels, natural gas and petroleum products are the most widely used. Specifically, gas oil, fuel oil, and gasoline have been the most commonly utilized petroleum products in Iran over the last five decades. To examine the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and total carbon dioxide emissions in Iran from 1955 to 2018, the current study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings reveal that fossil fuel use has multiple impacts on carbon dioxide emissions. Specifically, a one percent increase in the consumption of gas oil, fuel oil, natural gas, and gasoline results in a corresponding increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 0.55%, 0.32%, 0.32%, and 0.18%, respectively. The analysis of long-term elasticities reveals that a one percent increase in fossil fuel consumption corresponds to a 0.83%, 0.49%, 0.09%, and 0.34% increase in carbon emissions, respectively. The study's results demonstrate that the utilization of gas oil has the greatest negative impact on the environment and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran, both in the short and long term. Fuel oil and gasoline follow closely behind. In contrast, consuming natural gas has the least negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions and the environment in the long run. However, due to supply-side constraints and increasing natural gas consumption, switching from other fossil fuels to natural gas cannot be sustained as a long-term policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers pay attention to both price and non-price policies, such as reforming price subsidies and advancing fossil fuel-related machinery and technology.

Journal of Environmental Science Studies, Volume:9 Issue: 1, 2024
8031 to 8045
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