Future Scenarios of Urban Tourism in the Post COVID-19 Era from the Perspective of Experts the Case Study of Sareyn City

The COVID-19 pandemic created significant challenges for urban tourism, and its negative consequences caused countries to seek effective measures for the post-disease period. One of the most important of them is scenario planning; the main purpose of this research is to compile the future scenarios of urban tourism in the post-corona era, which was done with a focus on Sareyn. The research method is combined or mixed, which is carried out using a sequential exploratory approach in two qualitative-quantitative phases. The methods used in this research are "theme analysis and scenario planning." The statistical population of the research includes a multi-core team of experts in urban tourism, urban management, geography, public administration, and public health, who are also familiar with the conditions and status of Sareyn. These people are identified through the purposeful sampling method. According to the findings of the research, in the first phase, which was carried out using the theme analysis method, the themes extracted from the semi-structured interviews are in the form of 39 basic themes, 14 organizing themes, and 3 inclusive themes, which will go to the next stage to identify the drivers. Based on the findings of the quantitative phase of the research, four scenarios were identified, which are the reduction of restrictions and smart health screening, health tourism (treatment), green zoning, and mandatory lockdown. According to the results, the scenarios of "reducing restrictions and smart health screening - health tourism (treatment)" are, respectively, the most favorable and relatively favorable, and "green zoning - forced lock" scenarios are categorized as relatively unfavorable and most unfavorable situations. By adopting the relevant scenarios and properly managing urban tourism and its consequences, the post-disease period can also be considered an opportunity for urban tourism that brings new and desirable solutions to the fore.