Vulnerability and Resilience of Water Resources in North Karoun Basin

The North Karoun water basin is effective in the sustainable supply of water resources in the southwest and center of Iran. The occurrence of droughts in the basin has led to a 50% decrease in water supply and a drop in the water level of aquifers. The high rate of changes in the basin (63%) indicates the vulnerability of water sources. To analyze the climate vulnerability index (1990-2020), the basic component analysis method was used. The statistical findings indicated the most important effective factors with Eigen-Value weights include variability of discharge (W=1.987), long-term drought (W=1.658), agricultural water (W=1.33), and aquifer reservoir deficit (W=1.09) vulnerability. Climatic (CVI) of North Karoun basin. Behesht Abad, Vanak and Lordegan sub-basins have critical and high vulnerability coefficients, while Bazoft and Koohrang have the lowest vulnerability. For the future perspective of the basin, the climatic conditions (2020-2040) and based on climate change in the SSp.4.5, SSp.8.5 scenarios of the sixth report and the negative and positive drivers of the basin development programs in the horizon of 1420 were used. The findings indicated that with the continuation of the current trend of temperature and the occurrence of droughts and the implementation of water transfer and construction projects in the framework of negative drivers, the intensity of the vulnerability index will increase. But by choosing strategies based on positive drivers (adaptability to climate change), correcting the consumption pattern, and adjusting the amount of transferable water (from 770 to 212), climate vulnerability index will decrease in the perspective(2020-2040).Therefore, the continuation of the status quo will lead to an increase in the vulnerability index, social tensions, and climatic migrations. Therefore, revising exploitation strategies, adjusting development plans, choosing climate change adaptation strategies, and modifying water consumption patterns based on ecological potential will lead to increased resilience and sustainability of water resources.