Probabilistic seismic risk analysis of Pardis New Town

Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)

Pardis New Town located at a distance of 17 km from Tehran is bounded by the Alborz mountain range from the north, the Jajrud River from the west, Karasht, Siahsang and Taherabad villages from the south, and Bumehen from the east. It is located in the catchment area of the Jajrud River and has about 3600 hectares area. It includes 9 phases, 6 of which are residential regions and the other three are for research, industrial and tourism purposes.Since Pardis New Town is located in Tehran province and in proximity to the Mosha and North Tehran faults which have historical earthquakes, this study investigates its seismicity and seismic risk analysis by probabilistic method.   After estimating the parameters of each seismic source, namely β, λ and the expected maximum magnitude, the peak ground acceleration of the sources was obtained for the return period of 475 years. For an earthquake with a return period of 475 years, the maximum value of ground acceleration in bedrock was equal to 0.34 g, and when we take into account the soil effect using the existing boreholes that indicate the geotechnical characteristics of the soil of the site, the maximum acceleration of 0.37 g in the eastern area of Pardis was obtained.

Iranian Journal of Geophysics, Volume:17 Issue: 4, 2023
41 to 57  
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