The Effect of Heterogeneous Behavior of Investors of Housing Sector on Inflation from the Housing Price Channel

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of the heterogeneous behavior of investors in the housing sector on housing prices and inflation in Iran during the period 2001:3 - 2020:3. The threshold effects of behavioral variables on housing prices and the effect of housing prices on inflation using smooth transition regression method (STR) is estimated. Then, using Sobel's statistic. The results of the estimation of house prices show that Herding behavior has a positive effect on housing prices in the first regime and the second regime. Overconfidence in the first regime was ineffective on housing prices, but in the second regime, it had a positive and significant effect. The results of estimating the inflation model also indicated that there are two limit regimes for the inflation function. Housing prices had a positive effect on the inflation rate in the first and second regimes. The calculation of the Sobel statistic also indicates the confirmation of the transmission of the effect of herding behavior on inflation from the housing price channel, while the Sobel test did not confirm the transmission of the effect of overconfidence from the housing price channel on inflation