Changing Scenarios in the International System and Their Effects on Iran’s Acting

The purpose of the present study is to identify likely structures for the future international system and to understand their effectiveness on Iran’s opportunities and limitations. The methodology of the present research is qualitative that has used a futurologist scenario to identify likely structures of the international system. The main research question is: what are scenarios that can change the international system and what will be their consequences and effects on Iran’s relations and acting? The research results show that the occurrence of the scenario of a multipolar international system is more likely than a bipolar or unipolar one. In each scenario, countries have 3 general options: companionship including union or following, competition including creating balance, tolerating the challengers, and adopting an opposition policy towards the existing pole or poles in the world. The scenario of a multipolar world will bring the most capabilities and opportunities for Iran while the unipolar scenario led by the U.S will increase Iran’s limitations. On the other hand, the bipolar scenario compared to the unipolar one led by the U.S enhances Iran’s opportunities. Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will assist Iran to create more opportunities to meet its national interests through the bipolar scenario revolving around the U.S and China.