Presenting a fitting model of hydropolitical challenges around economic security (case study: Bushehr province)

Water is an element whose presence is necessary for economic development, food production, improvement of living standards and health, survival of living organisms, etc. Lack of access to fresh water endangers food security and social and economic well-being. As one of the dry and semi-arid countries of the world in the Middle East region, Iran is one of the countries facing water shortage. Due to the rapid growth of the urban population, the quantitative and physical growth of industries, industrialization, and traditional agriculture that consumes a lot of water in Iran has created many hydro-political and environmental challenges. Being located in the arid and semi-arid region of the south of the country, Bushehr province receives a large part of its water needs from the water resources of the neighboring provinces of Fars, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, with successive droughts and little and irregular rainfall, thus it is facing a water challenge. Due to the existing conditions and the reduction of water resources in the neighboring provinces, there is a possibility of water cuts and conflicts, and hydro-political tensions within and outside the province. The lack of water, in addition to its effect on economic security and the creation of local and regional tensions, has faced a problem in the development process of this province and has led to the emergence of various insecurities in the province. It is predicted that if this trend continues, the province will face more hydro-political challenges in the future. The present study aims to present a fitting model of hydro-political challenges surrounding the economic security of Bushehr province. This research seeks to answer the question: Is the empirically reproduced pattern of hydro political challenges surrounding the economic security of Bushehr province adequate?

In terms of the purpose, the present research is applied in terms of exploratory nature and in terms of mixed data, which means that in the qualitative phase of the research, semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, as well as indirect observation (reading of texts) were used. In the quantitative phase of the research, a survey study was used to collect data. Then, based on the organized themes of the qualitative phase, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed in the form of a five-point Likert scale, and after validation and reliability, 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method. completed Finally, after coding, the research data were extracted and tested and interpreted using SPSS26 and Smart PLS statistical software in two sections, descriptive analysis and inferential analysis.

The findings of the research have been made in two parts, qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part, after analyzing the texts and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, they have been analyzed, after the discovery and calculation of the conceptual model of the components of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province, as well as the economic security indicators of Bushehr province, have been drawn. In the quantitative part, the data obtained from the questionnaire resulting from the qualitative phase of the research, which were distributed among the experts of the investigated organizations in Bushehr province; After coding, they were extracted and transferred to SPSS26 and Smart PLS software and analyzed and interpreted in two parts: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. The independent variable of hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province with 45.466 (with a test average or cut-off line of 36) and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with 80.392 (with a test average or cut-off line of 63) is above the average level, and therefore it indicates that The amount of hydropolitical challenges in Bushehr province is relatively high; Because this rate is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of measured questions. The second and third hypotheses of the research have been confirmed at the error level of 0.01. But the first hypothesis considering that the T test value is below 1.96; Not confirmed.

The descriptive findings of the research show that the independent variable of the hydropolitical challenges of  Bushehr province is the average of 45.466 and its dimensions include extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 6.406 and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 39.060 and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with an average of 80.3925 in the studied statistical population are higher than the test average or the cut-off line. Therefore, they are not in a favorable situation, because their level is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions measured by the variables. The inferential findings of the research also show; the first hypothesis of the research "there is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and the economic security of the province" according to its T value of 0.848 is less than 1.96 and its significance level is greater than 0.05, so this hypothesis is rejected. The second hypothesis of the research "there is a significant effect between hydropolitical challenges within the province and the economic security of the province" its T value is 3.220 which is greater than 2.58. Therefore, its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis of the research "there is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges" and its T value is equal to 3.04, which shows that its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the third hypothesis is also confirmed. Therefore, according to the goodness of fit of this model, which is equal to 0.198, the general hypothesis of the research that the model of the effect of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province on the economic prosperity of the province has the required fit, is confirmed.