Analysis of the effect of migration on reducing population growth rate fluctuations case study of Kermanshah province

Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)

Today, with relative stability and convergence in fertility and mortality rates in different regions and increasing the rate and intensity of migration, migration now plays an important role as a demographic factor in population changes. Kermanshah province, like many other regions of the country, has been exposed to these demographic changes. But what has changed the situation of this province is its migration flows. In the past decades, this province has always faced a large number of immigrants. Therefore, in the present study, using the secondary analysis of the census data of the two decades 2006-2016, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of migration in this province on its population growth rate. The results indicate that Kermanshah province in this two periods of with a net immigration of -37755 and -34928, was the second largest migrant province in the country. In the period 2011-2016, despite the decrease in the intensity of migration in this province, but a large share of migration has taken place to inter-provincial migration. The provinces of Tehran, Alborz, Hamedan and Markazi have a major role in the net negative migration of this province. Migration in two periods studied, has reduced the annual population growth rate by 0.33 and 0.35 percent, respectively, so that the real population growth rate has decreased from 1.1 to 0.67 in the period 2006-2011 and from 0.45 to 0.10 in the period 2011-2016.

Journal of Future Cities vision, Volume:4 Issue: 4, 2023
97 to 113  
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