The AUKUS Treaty and Australian Deterrence: Changing Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific

The present article aims to examine the dynamics arised from the AUKUS Treaty on Australia's deterrence and its link with the USA' capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. The main question is how Australia will fulfill its deterrent role in this region with the AUKUS agreement, and what capabilities and opportunities Australia gains to shape its security environment. The main argument is that the AUKUS agreement creates a defense capability for the evolution of Australia's defense and security strategy, allowing it to adapt its strategy to the cross-domain deterrence of the USA and the United Kingdom as a naval power emerges with a modern fleet. By activating power dynamics in the form of centrality in the Oceania cluster and power linked to the USA' security network in the Indo-Pacific, it controls order through conventional deterrence against China. The research findings show that the AUKUS agreement, by creating synergy between various military and non-military domains, will disrupt the regional order in the region from a "geography of peace" to a "geography of conflict" and cause function of order on the edge of chaos. The article is using the content analysis method of qualitative data collected from reports, national defense documents, updated defense strategic documents 2020 and Australia's maritime security strategy 2022, comments of Australian government officials, the analysis of experts and experts in East Asian defense issues and security study centers have been used.