Investigating temperature changes in Tabas City in the future using the sixth climate change report

Increasing in the concentration of greenhouse gases has caused significant changes in the hydrological cycle. Climate change affects all environmental processes and society. To investigate the effect of climate change on the temperature parameter, atmospheric General Circulation Models and the use of downscaling are some of the best methods to estimate these effects. In this study, the most up-to-date climate change report (CMPI6) was used. Also, in this research, using historical NCEP data and observational data of Tabas station (1990-2014), temperature changes in Tabas were predicted using the CanESM5 model, under two moderate scenarios (ssp245) and pessimistic scenario (ssp585) It was implemented for the years 2015 to 2100. Due to the large scale of the NCEP model, the SDSM model was used for downscaling. Mean square error (RMSE), agreement index (d) and Kling-Gupta index (KGE) were used to evaluate the model. The validation results of the SDSM model in the years 2008 to 2014 showed that RMSE is 2.568, d is 0.98 and KGE is 0.96. Then the simulation for the future from 2015 to 2100 was done under two scenarios ssp245 and ssp585. The results of the research showed that the simulation has been done well in this period as well. Also, using the ssp245 scenario, the air temperature of Tabas will increase by 3.2 degrees compared to the base period, and with the ssp585 scenario, the temperature of Tabas will increase by 4.7 degrees compared to the base period of the area.