Catch-Up and Lagging Behind in MENA Countries

The total GDP of the MENA region is approximately $7 trillion (5.9% of the world economy), and its population is around 405 million (5.5% of the global population). This article aimed to evaluate the drivers of sustainability in 15 MENA countries from 1998 to 2019, examining different sub-periods. Evidence indicated that 14 countries made strides in catch-up growth between 1999 and 2019. The correlations were also calculated in four periods: 1980–1989, 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019. In the first period, only Egypt and Morocco showed progress in catching up. During the second period, nine countries experienced catch-up, while six lagged behind. The third period saw substantial improvements in the catch-up across most countries, with the exception of the UAE. In the fourth period, most countries continued on a catch-up trajectory. The analysis revealed that capital deepening played a crucial role in the performance of 11 countries. The human resource participation was positive in most countries but was negative in Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia—although overall, its contribution was less significant than capital deepening. None of the countries demonstrated a positive contribution of productivity, and there was no evidence of productivity growth supporting performance improvements, leaving a considerable gap compared to the United States (as an ideal example). Furthermore, the catch-up patterns of large economies mirrored those of smaller economies.