Exploring the Political Horizon of Turkey

Turkey is particularly important for the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is Iran's neighbor and there is a common land border between the two sides. Turkey is influential in some of Iran's internal issues, including some of the issues of the Azerbaijani provinces. Turkey has the ability to reduce the pressure of Western sanctions against Iran. In addition to being able to be defined as a political, intelligence and security partner for Iran in some regional issues and issues, its regional policies in various regional issues, especially in the case of Syria, Palestine, the Zionist regime and the South Caucasus, can be problematic for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This level of influence makes the issue of power shifts in Türkiye a significant one. In other words, it is natural that the Islamic Republic of Iran should be concerned and concerned about the future political situation in Turkey. The failure of the ruling party and the success of the Republican People's Party in the municipal elections in March 2024 made Iran more sensitive to the above issue than ever before and raised the question of whether the Turkish government will change in the not-so-distant future and power will pass to another person or movement? What are the characteristics of Turkey's political future and what will it look like? An examination of the tools and capabilities, social base, and political and economic performance of parties in Turkey shows that, barring an extraordinary event or development, one of the two parties, the Justice and Development Party and the Republican People's Party, will determine the future political situation in Turkey. In other words, either the ruling party will continue to maintain power in its hands, or it will cede power to its main rival party. In the meantime, the hands of the Kurdish party will continue to be far from government power. Due to the large Kurdish population in Turkey, this party has the ability to maintain its influential role and even beyond that, it may be able to achieve a decisive role through an alliance with one of the competing parties.