Scenario planning for the future of higher education in Iran

The purpose of this research was to create a scenario of Iran's higher education in the transition of post-massism.

First, the influential environmental factors or key drivers of higher education in the post-massification transition in Iran were examined. In order to identify the most frequent propositions, the number of propositions related to each theme was used as the basis of the work. Next, experts were asked to rate each of these factors based on a three-point Likert scale, according to two indicators (1) importance and (2) uncertainty. As a result, 26 key factors were identified. Finally, a total of 36 different situations were designed for 8 thrusters.

At the beginning of this research, led to the identification of 43 key factors in six dimensions (1) education, (2) society, (3) university, (4) technology, (5) economy and (6) labor market. Next, the identified key drivers included eight general categories as follows: (1) mismatch between university graduates and labor market demand, (2) private sector investment in higher education, (3) political problems - economic and lack of independence, (4) the structural problems of the university in management and educational planning, (5) the change of attitudes governing the society, (6) the emphasis of the family and others on the university education, (7) the problems of the existing educational system, and (8) The emergence of new technologies in higher education. In the end, four scenarios were identified that had the most internal consistency: (1): market-oriented universities; (2): technological evolution; (3): limitations of political and economic institutions; and (4): sustainable and fair education.

It can be stated that the future of Iran's higher education system in the post-massification transition can be imagined through four distinct scenarios, each of which presents a different point of view based on key drivers and priorities.