Evaluation and Prediction of Risk Management Impacts in the Supply Chain and Logistics with a Long-Term Approach

In the supply chain, factors such as political issues, demand fluctuations, technological changes, financial instability, and natural disasters lead to increased uncertainty and the emergence of various risks. One of the most important and complex stages of logistical support in organizations, particularly in military and law enforcement organizations, is the forecasting process. Due to its vital role in improving logistical functions, this process highlights the necessity of designing and establishing effective forecasting systems. This research examines the importance of forecasting and estimation in logistical functions and analyzes the requirements that must be followed when designing a forecasting system for the country’s 10-year horizon. The research method is a questionnaire survey evaluated by 120 participants. The case study of this research is the Amirabad Special Economic Zone (Mazandaran), from which all necessary information and data have been collected. This region plays a crucial role in trade and economic development in northern Iran, with various investments in logistics and transportation.